Assessing Vulnerability to Poverty for Households in Western African Countries: Evidence from Rural Gambia

Ebrima K. Ceesay; Massimo Morelli

doi:10.55845/jos-2026-2194

Authors

Ebrima K. Ceesay University of the Gambia
Massimo Morelli Bocconi University; CEPR; LISER

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55845/jos-2026-2194

Keywords:

Vulnerability, Poverty Line, Income, Consumption, Econometrics Analysis, Rural Gambia

Abstract

This study assesses household vulnerability to poverty in rural Gambia using the Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) approach, based on cross-sectional data. This approach provides a forward-looking measure of welfare, moving beyond static poverty headcounts to identify households at risk of future poverty. We interchanged income, total consumption, and food consumption to estimate vulnerability, thereby employing multiple welfare metrics to ensure robust, dimension-specific findings. A three-step Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) method was applied: first, estimating the ex-ante mean using OLS; second, modelling variance from squared residuals; and third, correcting for heteroskedasticity to predict vulnerability. Findings show that household size has a positive and significant effect on expected log income, while its squared term is negative and significant, indicating diminishing returns. The age of the household head has a slightly positive but statistically insignificant effect on income, with the squared term weakening this effect. Employment status is positively associated with income; a one-unit increase leads to a 2.9% rise in expected log income and reduced vulnerability. Educational attainment also shows a positive, though insignificant, effect. Non-land production assets significantly reduce vulnerability, with a one-unit increase lowering it by 18.8%. The share of irrigated land contributes to a 4.4% reduction in vulnerability. To reduce vulnerability in rural Gambia, government efforts should focus on expanding access to irrigation and productive assets, especially for smallholder farmers. Employment programs targeting rural youth and women can enhance income stability. Strengthening vocational education and improving access to agricultural extension services will also help households build resilience and reduce future vulnerability and poverty risks.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Adger, W. N. (2006). Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 268–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006

Adger, W. N., & Kelly, P. M. (1999). Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4(3–4), 253–266. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1009601904210

Amdu, B., Ayehu, A., & Deressa, A. (2013). Farmers’ perception and adaptive capacity to climate change and variability in the upper catchment of Blue Nile, Ethiopia. The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS).

Amemiya, T. (1977). The maximum likelihood and the nonlinear three-stage least squares estimator in the general nonlinear simultaneous equation model. Econometrica, 45(4), 955. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912684

Ansah, E. W., Amoadu, M., Obeng, P., & Sarfo, J. O. (2024). Climate change, urban vulnerabilities and adaptation in Africa: A scoping review. Climatic Change, 177(71). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03711-8

Ayodotun, B., Bamba, S., & Adio, A. (2019). Vulnerability assessment of West African countries to climate change and variability. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 7(6), 13–15. https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=93085

Bohle, H. G., Downing, T. E., & Watts, M. J. (1994). Climate change and social vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 4(1), 37–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/0959-3780(94)90020-5

Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2009). Economic vulnerability and resilience: Concepts and measurements. Oxford Development Studies, 37(3), 229–247. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810903089893

Brinkerhoff, D. W. (2005). Rebuilding governance in failed states and post-conflict societies: Core concepts and cross-cutting themes. Public Administration and Development, 25(1), 3–14. https://doi.org/10.1002/pad.352

Casey, K., Glennerster, R., & Miguel, E. (2012). Reshaping institutions: Evidence on aid impacts using a preanalysis plan. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(4), 1755–1812.

Chaudhuri, S., Jalan, J., & Suryahadi, A. (2002). Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data: A methodology and estimates from Indonesia. Department of Economics, Columbia University. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.629624

Christiaensen, L. J., & Subbarao, K. (2005). Towards an understanding of household vulnerability in rural Kenya. Journal of African Economies, 14(4), 520–558. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/eji008

Dell, M. (2010). The persistent effects of colonial institutions in Mexico. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(1), 1–27.

Dercon, S. (2004). Growth and shocks: Evidence from rural Ethiopia. Journal of Development Economics, 74(2), 309–329.

Deressa, T., Hassan, R. M., & Ringler, C. (2008). Measuring Ethiopian farmers’ vulnerability to climate change across regional states. IFPRI Discussion Paper.

Downing, T. E. (1991). Vulnerability to hunger in Africa: A climate change perspective. Global Environmental Change, 1(5), 365–380. https://doi.org/10.1016/0959-3780(91)90003-C

Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), & United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2024). Regional resilience strategy for West Africa. https://www.undp.org/africa/press-releases/ecowas-undp-technical-consultation-initiates-efforts-develop-west-africa-resilience-strategy

Fernández-López, S., Álvarez-Espiño, M., & Rey-Ares, L. (2023). Financial vulnerability of low-income households: Review of Scopus and WoS journals. AEID Journal. https://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid2419.pdf

Gaiha, R., & Deolalikar, A. B. (1993). Persistent, expected and innate poverty: Estimates for semi-arid rural South India, 1975–1984. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 17(4), 409–421. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035246

Gaiha, R., & Imai, K. (2004). Vulnerability, shocks and persistence of poverty: Estimates for semi-arid rural South India. Oxford Development Studies, 32(2), 261–281. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810410001699984

Gaiha, R., & Imai, K. (2008). Measuring vulnerability and poverty: Estimates for rural India (Research Paper No. 2008/40).

Gambia Bureau of Statistics. (2022). Prevalence and depth of poverty: Integrated household survey 2020.

Gemenne, F., & Blocher, J. (2017). How can migration serve adaptation to climate change? Challenges to fleshing out a policy ideal. Geographical Journal, 183(4), 336–347. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12205

Gioli, G., Khan, T., & Scheffran, J. (2016). Gender and environmentally induced migration in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274541391_Gender_and_Environmentally-induced_Migration_in_Gilgit-Baltistan_Pakistan

Günther, I., & Harttgen, K. (2009). Estimating households vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks: A novel method applied in Madagascar. World Development, 37(7), 1222–1234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.11.006

Günther, I., & Maier, J. K. (2014). Poverty, vulnerability, and reference-dependent utility. Review of Income and Wealth, 60(1), 155–181. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12081

Hoddinott, J., & Quisumbing, A. (2010). Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessment. In Risk, shocks, and human development (pp. 62–100). https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230274129_4

January 2009. (2009). International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 39(1), 283–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8141(08)00187-X

Kanbur, R. (1987). Structural adjustment, macroeconomic adjustment and poverty: A methodology for analysis. World Development, 15(12), 1515–1526. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(87)90234-8

Lawal, O., & Arokoyu, S. B. (2015). Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using GIS. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies. https://jamba.org.za/index.php/jamba/article/view/155

Legesse, D., Legesse, H., & Geleta, N. (2018). Effects of blended fertilizer rate and time of application on growth and yield of sugarcane ratoon crop at Arjo-Sugar Factory, Western Ethiopia. Science, Technology and Arts Research Journal, 5(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.4314/star.v5i1.1

Ligon, E., & Schechter, L. (2003). Measuring vulnerability. The Economic Journal, 113(486), C95–C102.

Liverman, D. M. (1990). Drought impacts in Mexico: Climate, agriculture, technology, and land tenure in Sonora and Puebla. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 80(1), 49–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1990.tb00003.x

Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Mastrandrea, M. D., Falcon, W. P., & Naylor, R. L. (2008). Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319(5863), 607–610. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152339

Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., McLean, G., Messina, C., Roberts, M. J., & Schlenker, W. (2013). The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nature Climate Change, 3(5), 497–501. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1832

Magrini, M. B., Anton, M., Chardigny, J. M., Duc, G., Duru, M., Jeuffroy, M. H., Meynard, J. M., Micard, V., & Walrand, S. (2018). Pulses for sustainability: Breaking agriculture and food sectors out of lock-in. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 2, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2018.00064

Mendelsohn, R. (2014). The impact of climate change on livestock management in Africa: A structural Ricardian analysis.

Morduch, J. (1995). Income smoothing and consumption smoothing. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(3), 103–114.

Muleta, A., & Deressa, D. (2014). Female-headed households and poverty in rural Ethiopia. Science, Technology and Arts Research Journal, 3(1), 152. https://doi.org/10.4314/star.v3i1.25

Nawrotzki, R. J., Riosmena, F., & Hunter, L. M. (2013). Do rainfall deficits predict U.S.-bound migration from rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census. Population Research and Policy Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-012-9251-8

Ofoegbu, C., & Chirwa, P. W. (2019). Analysis of rural people’s attitude towards the management of tribal forests in South Africa. Journal of Sustainable Forestry, 38(4), 396–411. https://doi.org/10.1080/10549811.2018.1554495

Pham, Q. D., Stuart, R. M., Nguyen, T. V., Luong, Q. C., Tran, Q. D., Pham, T. Q., … Kerr, C. C. (2021). Estimating and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound associated with reopening of international borders in Vietnam: A modelling study. The Lancet Global Health.

Reidsma, P., & Ewert, F. (2008). Regional farm diversity can reduce vulnerability of food production to climate change. Ecology and Society, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02476-130138

Science, E., Bryan, E., Deressa, T., Gbetibouo, G. A., & Ringler, C. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: Options and constraints. Environmental Science (details incomplete). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.002

Skoufias, E. (2003). Economic crises and natural disasters: Coping strategies and policy implications. World Development, 31(7), 1087–1102. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(03)00069-X

Tadesse, T., Hassan, R. M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T., & Yesuf, M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change (details inconsistent in original entry). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002

The Standard Newspaper. (2025). Poverty in The Gambia: Localised dimensions and realities. The Standard Newspaper.

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2024). Economic development in Africa report 2024: Strengthening resilience to trade shocks.

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. (2023). Socioeconomic profile of West Africa. https://www.uneca.org/eca-events/sites/default/files/resources/documents/sro-na/icsoe-na-wa-2023/socioeconomic-profile-2023-west-africa-english.pdf

Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., & Lammers, R. B. (2000). Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science, 289(5477), 284–288. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284

West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP), & United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2018). Conflict and development analysis: The Gambia.

World Bank. (2017). The Gambia fragility risk and resilience assessment.

World Bank. (2023). Poverty trends in The Gambia: A tale of two crises. World Bank Blogs.