Quantifying the Circularity of a Bioeconomy: A Case Study for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pathways in the United States

Authors

  • Sabrina Summers Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
  • Yuanhui Zhang Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55845/jos-2025-1243

Keywords:

Circularity Index, Decarbonised Transportation, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Waste Valorisation

Abstract

Decarbonising the aviation sector remains a challenge because long-haul flights rely on liquid fuels. Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), a conversion process that utilises elevated temperatures and pressures to produce biocrude from wet biomass, is a potential pathway for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Through valorisation of biowaste, SAF pathways may improve circularity by increasing the use of renewable and recovered resources. However, standard lifecycle methods do not quantify resource circularity. Here, a scalable circularity index (0%<CI<100%) was applied to quantify the circularity of jet fuel production in the U.S. aviation industry between fossil fuels, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA, an approved SAF route), and HTL. CI showed that compared to fossil jet, HEFA and HTL increased carbon circularity by 6.80-12.70% and energy circularity by 17.95-31.58%. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis showed that CIs in both SAF scenarios were highly correlated to feedstock supply and recovery, indicating further opportunities for improvement.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Aierzhati, A., Stablein, M. J., Wu, N. E., Kuo, C. T., Si, B., Kang, X., & Zhang, Y. (2019). Experimental and model enhancement of food waste hydrothermal liquefaction with combined effects of biochemical composition and reaction conditions. Bioresource Technology, 284(December 2018), 139–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2019.03.076

ASTM International. (2024a). ASTM D1655: Standard Specification for Aviation Turbine Fuels. Annual Book of ASTM Standards, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1520/D1655-24B.1.8

ASTM International. (2024b). ASTM D7566: Standard Specification for Aviation Turbine Fuel Containing Synthesized Hydrocarbons. Annual Book of ASTM Standards, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1520/D7566-24D.

Bioenergy Technologies Office. (2024). Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge. US Department of Energy, 1–4. https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuel-grand-challenge

Brändström, J., & Saidani, M. (2022). Comparison between circularity metrics and LCA: A case study on circular economy strategies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 371, 133537. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2022.133537

Calderon, O. R., Tao, L., Abdullah, Z., Moriarty, K., Smolinski, S., Milbrandt, A., Calderon, O. R., Tao, L., Abdullah, Z., Moriarty, K., Smolinski, S., & Milbrandt, A. (2024). Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) State-of-Industry Report: State of SAF Production Process. July. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2426562

Carvalho, F. S., Fornasier, F., Leitão, J. O. M., Moraes, J. A. R., & Schneider, R. C. S. (2019). Life cycle assessment of biodiesel production from solaris seed tobacco. Journal of Cleaner Production, 230, 1085–1095. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2019.05.177

Circular Economy Introduction. (n.d.). Retrieved October 6, 2025, from https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/topics/circular-economy-introduction/overview

Collins, C., Ocampo, O., & Thomhave, K. (2024). Greenwashing the Skies: How the Private Jet Lobby Uses “Sustainable Aviation Fuels” as a Marketing Ploy. https://ips-dc.org/report-greenwashing-the-skies/

Cronin, D. J., Subramaniam, S., Brady, C., Cooper, A., Yang, Z., Heyne, J., Drennan, C., Ramasamy, K. K., & Thorson, M. R. (2022). Sustainable Aviation Fuel from Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Wet Wastes. Energies, 15(4), 1306. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15041306

Dane, E., Ancheta, W., Obiminda, M., Cambaliza, L., & Delina, L. L. (2025). Towards Net Zero and a Zero Landfill Future: Leveraging Hong Kong’s Municipal Solid Waste Charging Scheme for Sustainable Waste Management and Carbon Neutrality. Journal of Sustainability, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.55845/JOS-2025-128

Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks 2022 Summary. (2023).

Finnveden, G., & Potting, J. (2014). Life Cycle Assessment. Encyclopedia of Toxicology: Third Edition, 74–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-386454-3.00627-8

Garcia-Bernabeu, A., Hilario-Caballero, A., Pla-Santamaria, D., & Salas-Molina, F. (2020). A process oriented MCDM approach to construct a circular economy composite index. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(2), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020618

Haider, M. S., Castello, D., & Rosendahl, L. A. (2020). Two-stage catalytic hydrotreatment of highly nitrogenous biocrude from continuous hydrothermal liquefaction: A rational design of the stabilization stage. Biomass and Bioenergy, 139(October 2019), 105658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105658

Haider, M. S., Castello, D., & Rosendahl, L. A. (2021). The Art of Smooth Continuous Hydroprocessing of Biocrudes Obtained from Hydrothermal Liquefaction: Hydrodemetallization and Propensity for Coke Formation. Energy and Fuels, 35(13), 10611–10622. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.1c01228

Harris, D. (2023). FY 2023-23, New Sustainable Aviation Fuel Purchase Credit Enacted. Illinois Department of Revenue Informational Bulletin. https://tax.illinois.gov/research/news/fy-2023-23--new-sustainable-aviation-fuel-purchase-credit-enacte.html

Hauschild, M. Z. (2019). Life Cycle Impact Assessment. CIRP Encyclopedia of Production Engineering, 1053–1057. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-53120-4_16861

Huijbregts, M. A. J., Steinmann, Z. J. N., Elshout, P. M. F., Stam, G., Verones, F., Vieira, M., Zijp, M., Hollander, A., & van Zelm, R. (2017). ReCiPe2016: a harmonised life cycle impact assessment method at midpoint and endpoint level. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 22(2), 138–147. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11367-016-1246-Y/TABLES/2

Huq, N. A., Hafenstine, G. R., Huo, X., Nguyen, H., Tifft, S. M., Conklin, D. R., Stück, D., Stunkel, J., Yang, Z., Heyne, J. S., Wiatrowski, M. R., Zhang, Y., Tao, L., Zhu, J., McEnally, C. S., Christensen, E. D., Hays, C., van Allsburg, K. M., Unocic, K. A., … Vardon, D. R. (2021). Toward net-zero sustainable aviation fuel with wet waste–derived volatile fatty acids. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(13). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2023008118

Jensen, L. L., Bonnefoy, P. A., Hileman, J. I., & Fitzgerald, J. T. (2023). The carbon dioxide challenge facing U.S. aviation and paths to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. In Progress in Aerospace Sciences (Vol. 141). Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paerosci.2023.100921

Kenny, S., Stephenson, J., Stern, A., Beecher, J., Morelli, B., Henderson, A., Chiang, E., Beck, A., Cashman, S., Wexler, E., McGaughy, K., & Martell, A. (2023). From Field to Bin: The Environmental Impacts of U.S. Food Waste Management, EPA/600/R-23/065. In U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development. https://doi.org/10.1177/08920206231197582

Kilgore, U., Santosa, D. M., Li, S., Wang, P., Lee, S., & Thorson, M. R. (2023). Desalting biocrude for improved downstream processing toward marine fuel application. Sustainable Energy & Fuels. https://doi.org/10.1039/d3se00189j

Kirchherr, J., Yang, N. H. N., Schulze-Spüntrup, F., Heerink, M. J., & Hartley, K. (2023). Conceptualizing the Circular Economy (Revisited): An Analysis of 221 Definitions. In Resources, Conservation and Recycling (Vol. 194). Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107001

Kopnina, H. (2019). Green-washing or best case practices? Using circular economy and Cradle to Cradle case studies in business education. Journal of Cleaner Production, 219, 613–621. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2019.02.005

Kopnina, H., Fellinger, E., de Jong, J., & Bowden, A. (2025). Bridging ESG and the Circular Economy: Advancing corporate sustainability through the updated R-Hierarchy and Circularity Scoring Model. Visions for Sustainability, 2025(23), 9–41. https://doi.org/10.13135/2384-8677/11829

Kristensen, H. S., & Mosgaard, M. A. (2020). A review of micro level indicators for a circular economy – moving away from the three dimensions of sustainability? Journal of Cleaner Production, 243, 118531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118531

Minnesota Department of Revenue. (2024). Sustainable Aviation Fuel Credit. https://www.revenue.state.mn.us/sustainable-aviation-fuel-credit

Misbrener, K. (2024, August 2). Texas oil refinery powers third of operations with solar energy. https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2024/08/texas-oil-refinery-powers-operations-solar-energy/

Nath, S., Pillai, A. A., Ram, A., Gayathri, A. N., Viswanath, N., Tanjeri, P., Anuradha, R., & Arulprasad, R. (2025). Quantitative analysis to identify circular economy concepts incorporated in Indian policy documents regulating waste management by the Indian Healthcare sector. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 214, 108037. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2024.108037

New Mexico Environment Department. (2025). Clean Transportation Fuel Program. https://www.env.nm.gov/climate-change-bureau/clean-fuel-program/

Oregon.gov. (n.d.). Oregon Clean Fuels Program: Clean Fuels Program Overview. Retrieved May 29, 2025, from https://www.oregon.gov/deq/ghgp/cfp/Pages/CFP-Overview.aspx

Osman, A. I., Fang, B., Zhang, Y., Liu, Y., Yu, J., Farghali, M., Rashwan, A. K., Chen, Z., Chen, L., Ihara, I., Rooney, D. W., & Yap, P. S. (2024). Life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis of sustainable bioenergy production: a review. Environmental Chemistry Letters, 22(3), 1115–1154. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10311-023-01694-Z/FIGURES/4

Paiva Pinheiro Pires, A., Olarte, M., Terrell, E., Garcia-Perez, M., & Han, Y. (2023). Co-Hydrotreatment of Yellow Greases and the Water-Insoluble Fraction of Pyrolysis Oil. Part I: Experimental Design to Increase Kerosene Yield and Reduce Coke Formation. Energy and Fuels, 37(3), 2100–2114. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.2c03250

Payne, A., & Kwofie, E. M. (2024). Unleashing circular economy potential in agriculture: Integrating social impact assessment with the ReSOLVE framework as a tool for sustainable development. Sustainable Development, 32(5), 5074–5089. https://doi.org/10.1002/SD.2952

Pilipenets, O., Gunawardena, T., Hui, F. K. P., Mendis, P., & Aye, L. (2025). A novel circular economy framework: Assessing process circularity through resource flow and emissions analysis. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 215, 108083. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2024.108083

Prussi, M., Lee, U., Wang, M., Malina, R., Valin, H., Taheripour, F., Velarde, C., Staples, M. D., Lonza, L., & Hileman, J. I. (2021). CORSIA: The first internationally adopted approach to calculate life-cycle GHG emissions for aviation fuels. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 150(June). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111398

Rahman, W. U., Patel, M., Kurian, V., & Kumar, A. (2022). A comparative techno-economic assessment of fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal liquefaction, and intermediate pyrolysis of municipal solid waste for liquid transportation fuels production. Energy Conversion and Management, 267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2022.115877

Rosales Calderon, O., Tao, L., Abdullah, Z., Talmadge, M., Milbrandt, A., Smolinski, S., Moriarty, K., Bhatt, A., Zhang, Y., Ravi, V., Skangos, C., Davis, R., & Payne, C. (2024). Sustainable Aviation Fuel State-of-Industry Report: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids Pathway. July. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2426563

Saidani, M., Yannou, B., Leroy, Y., Cluzel, F., & Kendall, A. (2019). A taxonomy of circular economy indicators. Journal of Cleaner Production, 207, 542–559. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2018.10.014

Samani, P. (2023). Synergies and gaps between circularity assessment and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Science of The Total Environment, 903, 166611. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2023.166611

State of Washington Department of Ecology. (n.d.). Clean Fuel Standard. Retrieved May 29, 2025, from https://ecology.wa.gov/Air-Climate/Reducing-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions/Clean-Fuel-Standard

Subramaniam, S., Santosa, D. M., Brady, C., Swita, M., Ramasamy, K. K., & Thorson, M. R. (2021). Extended Catalyst Lifetime Testing for HTL Biocrude Hydrotreating to Produce Fuel Blendstocks from Wet Wastes. ACS Sustainable Chemistry and Engineering, 9(38), 12825–12832. https://doi.org/10.1021/acssuschemeng.1c02743

Summers, S., Jing, Q., Kawale, H., Wang, Z., Mirzaei, D., & Zhang, Y. (2025). Waste Biorefinery Concept for Production of Value-Added Products Through Hydrothermal Liquefaction Pathway: A Critical Review and Outlook. ACS ES&T Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1021/ACSESTENGG.5C00273

Summers, S., Valentine, A., Wang, Z., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Pilot-Scale Continuous Plug-Flow Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Food Waste for Biocrude Production. Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.3c01587

Summers, S., Yang, S., Wang, Z., Si, B., Kawale, H., & Zhang, Y. (2024). Multi-stage pretreatment of hydrothermal liquefaction biocrude oil as a precursor for sustainable aviation fuel production. Fuel Processing Technology, 263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuproc.2024.108118

The Ellen MacArthur Foundation, & Granta Design. (2015). Material Circularity Indicator (MCI). https://ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/material-circularity-indicator

Thorson, M. R., Santosa, D. M., Hallen, R. T., Kutnyakov, I., Olarte, M. V., Flake, M., Neuenschwander, G., Middleton-Smith, L., Zacher, A. H., Hart, T. R., Schmidt, A. J., Lemmon, T., & Swita, M. (2021). Scaleable Hydrotreating of HTL Biocrude to Produce Fuel Blendstocks. Energy and Fuels, 35(14), 11346–11352. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.1c00956

Troderman, J., & U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2025, May 6). U.S. sustainable aviation fuel production takes off as new capacity comes online. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65204

Tzanetis, K. F., Posada, J. A., & Ramirez, A. (2017). Analysis of biomass hydrothermal liquefaction and biocrude-oil upgrading for renewable jet fuel production: The impact of reaction conditions on production costs and GHG emissions performance. Renewable Energy, 113, 1388–1398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.104

United States Environmental Protection Agency. (2025, January 15). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks

U.S. Department of Energy. (2024). 2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources. https://doi.org/10.23720/BT2023/2316165

U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center. (2023, April). Sustainable Aviation Fuel Estimated Consumption. https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10967

U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Transportation, & U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2022). SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/beto-saf-gc-roadmap-report-sept-2022.pdf

U.S. Department of Transportation. (2024). Annual Report Mileage for Hazardous Liquid or Carbon Dioxide Systems. https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/data-and-statistics/pipeline/annual-report-mileage-hazardous-liquid-or-carbon-dioxide-systems

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024a). Movements by Pipeline, Tanker, Barge and Rail between PAD Districts. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_ptb_dc_R20-R10_mbbl_a.htm

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024b, September 30). Movements by Pipeline, Tanker, Barge and Rail between PAD Districts. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_ptb_dc_R20-R10_mbbl_a.htm

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024c, September 30). U.S. Year-to-Date Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/pdf/table4.pdf

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2025). Food: Material-Specific Data. https://www.epa.gov/facts-and-figures-about-materials-waste-and-recycling/food-material-specific-data

Usman, M., Cheng, S., Boonyubol, S., & Cross, J. S. (2023). The future of aviation soars with HTL-based SAFs: exploring potential and overcoming challenges using organic wet feedstocks. In Sustainable Energy and Fuels (Vol. 7, Issue 17, pp. 4066–4087). Royal Society of Chemistry. https://doi.org/10.1039/d3se00427a

Wang, M., Elgowainy, A., Lee, U., Baek, K. H., Balchandani, S., Benavides, P. T., Burnham, A., Cai, H., Chen, P., Gan, Y., Gracida-Alvarez, U. R., Hawkins, T. R., Huang, T.-Y., Iyer, R. K., Kar, S., Kelly, J. C., Kim, T., Kolodziej, C. P., Lee, K., … Zhang, J. (2023). Summary of Expansions and Updates in R&D GREET 2023. www.anl.gov.

Wang, M. Q. (1999a). GREET 1.5-Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results. http://www.ipd.anl.gov/

Wang, M. Q. (1999b). GREET 1.5-Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results. http://www.ipd.anl.gov/

Watson, J., Si, B., Wang, Z., Wang, T., Valentine, A., & Zhang, Y. (2021). Towards transportation fuel production from food waste: Potential of biocrude oil distillates for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Fuel, 301(March), 121028. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2021.121028

Watson, J., Wang, T., Si, B., Chen, W. T., Aierzhati, A., & Zhang, Y. (2020). Valorization of hydrothermal liquefaction aqueous phase: pathways towards commercial viability. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 77, 100819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecs.2019.100819

Wu, H., Kim, T., Ferdous, S., Scheve, T., Lin, Y., Valentino, L., Holtzapple, M., Hawkins, T. R., Benavides, P. T., & Urgun-Demirtas, M. (2024). Sustainable Aviation Fuel from High-Strength Wastewater via Membrane-Assisted Volatile Fatty Acid Production: Experimental Evaluation, Techno-economic, and Life-Cycle Analyses. ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, 12(18), 6990–7000. https://doi.org/10.1021/ACSSUSCHEMENG.4C00167

Xinru, X., Jingyi, Y., Ying, J., & Jinsheng, G. (2006). Effects of process conditions on desalting and demetalization of crude oil. Petroleum Science and Technology, 24(11), 1307–1321. https://doi.org/10.1081/LFT-200056651

Yoo, E., Lee, U., & Wang, M. (2022). Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Sustainable Aviation Fuel through a Net-Zero Carbon Biofuel Plant Design. ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, 10(27), 8725–8732. https://doi.org/10.1021/ACSSUSCHEMENG.2C00977

Zaman, A. U., & Lehmann, S. (2013). The zero waste index: A performance measurement tool for waste management systems in a “zero waste city.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 50, 123–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2012.11.041

Zhang, J., Bhuiyan, M., Zhang, G., Sandanayake, M., & Navaratnam, S. (2024). Circular economy life cycle cost for kerbside waste material looping process. Waste Management, 186, 307–317. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WASMAN.2024.06.023

Zhang, Y., Summers, S., Jones, J. W., & Reid, J. F. (2024). A Scalable Index for Quantifying Circularity of Bioeconomy Systems. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 210(May), 107821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107821

Zhu, Y., Xu, Y., Schmidt, A., Thorson, M., Cronin, D., Santosa, D., Edmundson, S., Li, S., Snowden-Swan, L., & Valdez, P. (2023). Microalgae Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading: 2022 State of Technology. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1962867/

Downloads

Published

19-11-2025

Issue

Section

Research Articles

How to Cite

Summers, S., & Zhang, Y. (2025). Quantifying the Circularity of a Bioeconomy: A Case Study for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pathways in the United States. Journal of Sustainability, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.55845/jos-2025-1243
Received 09-06-2025
Accepted 09-11-2025
Published 19-11-2025

Similar Articles

1-10 of 37

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.